The IDF, which failed to destroy Hamas, will not be able to destroy
Hezbollah, which is hundreds of times more powerful [photo credit: Al
Qassam Brigades]
In Lebanon, Israel will not be able to achieve more than degrading
Hezbollah while it continues to be able to fire rockets into Israel. Yet
the campaign against Hezbollah appears to have spiralled out of control
as Israel has redirected its war aims against all of Iran’s ‘Axis of
Resistance.' And while the Trump administration will return to a
‘maximum pressure’ campaign the new White House will desperately try not
to be pulled into war with Iran but to delegate the burden of conflict
to regional partners.
The second and equally important point of friction is the reliance of
Trump’s regional policy on the Gulf states. While the pro-Israel lobby
will try to sell narratives to the Trump ideologues, the various Gulf
lobbies have deep pockets that have entangled business networks around
Trump already. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have all
built extensive relationships with the Trump ecosystem – all
underwritten by lucrative investments. Moreover, the president-elect
knows he will not need the pro-Israel lobby to get re-elected as this
will be his last term. The Gulf lobbies, however, can provide lucrative
avenues to retirement not just for Trump and his family but for many of
those appointed by him into positions of power.
And the interests of the Gulf states will not be easily reconcilable
with the interests of Netanyahu’s Israel. On Gaza, there is strong
opposition to what the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman referred
to as ‘collective genocide’
committed by Israel in Gaza. The annexation of Gazan and West Bank
territory will not be acceptable to America’s Gulf partners and likely
will be a red line that Trump and his ideologues won’t want to cross.
However, in the absence of a clear US strategy emerging from Israel’s
multi-front war, it remains to be seen whether the Gulf can offer
anything tangible that prevents Israel creating irreversible faits accomplis on the ground.
That in turn risks upending the little progress that has been
achieved by the US in pushing Gulf states into normalising with Israel.
The red lines by Saudi Arabia
have been made clear. The Saudis will not readily join the Abraham
Accords and normalising with the Jewish state will come with clear
demands for Palestinian statehood. Trump’s Middle East team of
ideologues will soon find that emboldening the far right in Israel will
make it ever more unpalatable for the kingdom to recognise Israel.
On Iran, the Gulf states find themselves in a different position from
2017 when Trump first entered the White House. The absence of credible
US leadership in the meantime meant these states have effectively
diversified their global networks and partnerships. They are today far
less reliant on Washington than they were even a few years ago. What is
more, the Gulf states are also now far more conscious of their leverage
vis-à-vis the United States as engagement and reconciliation have been
the name of the game in the Gulf in recent years. There is consensus
that bringing Iran into the fold is far better for business than
cornering the Islamic Republic thus amplifying its subversive surrogate
operations. The efforts at reconciliation especially between Riyadh and
Tehran over the past 18 months appear to be irreversible. Thus, in terms
of delivering ‘maximum pressure’ the Trump administration will not be
able to rely much on the support of Gulf capitals this time around. And
Israel’s warmongering narratives of regime change can only be put into
effect if the US was willing to pour significant blood and treasure into
the conflict – something that would fundamentally contradict one of
Trump’s few principles of no more American wars in the Middle East.
So while the Trump team has been deeply ideological in how they talk
about Israel for domestic consumption, designing and delivering policy
in the Middle East requires far more balance than delivering Zionist
talking points in a Fox News commentary. The reality check will come
fast – especially if Trump is really interested in a grand bargain to
secure his legacy both financially and politically. The deal of the
century can be done but only if Trump uses the leverage America still
has to keep Netanyahu and company in check. Should the incoming
president and his team be played the way Bibi played Biden US leadership
in the region will continue to decline.
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